The Tragedy of Goli Otok: A Call for Justice

By Ambassador (ret.) Zorica Maric Djordjevic & Prof. Milena Sterio

Goli Otok translates to "Barren Island" in English. It is the name of a political prison camp located on an island in the Adriatic Sea, Croatia, part of the former Yugoslavia, functioning from 1948 until the end of 1988.

Goli Otok, the notorious Yugoslav prison camp, remains one of the darkest chapters in the history of the former Yugoslavia. Established in 1948 as a brutal labor camp for political prisoners, it became synonymous with repression, psychological and physical torture, and forced ideological re-education. Numerous citizens of the former Yugoslavia, and in particular many intellectuals and political figures, were imprisoned there for “crimes” such as opposing the Communist Party's policies or being labeled a Stalin supporter and “enemy of the people.” Sentences, handed down by the Communist Party without a trial, ranged from months to several years of forced labor and imprisonment on Goli Otok. The imprisonment of political dissidents on Goli Otok left a lasting impact on their families, particularly their children, who grew up under the shadow of societal prejudice, silent struggle, and the enduring weight of injustice—burdens that persisted particularly until the fall of communism in 1989.

 This repressive political project did not spare women, who were imprisoned both on Goli Otok and the nearby island of St. Grgur, where they endured brutal treatment, forced labor, and ideological persecution. Their suffering remains an often-overlooked aspect of this dark chapter, yet it is an essential part of the broader historical reckoning that must take place.

While most former Yugoslav republics have acknowledged this dark chapter, rehabilitated the victims, and provided compensation, Montenegro remains an exception. The communist narrative, once used to justify these grave human rights violations, still dominates discussions about Goli Otok, obstructing true rehabilitation and justice. This is no coincidence—those who shaped and upheld this narrative were the very ones who wrote Montenegrin history, ensuring that the truth remained buried, and that accountability was never fully addressed.

Yet, rehabilitation and compensation are not mere legal formalities—they are essential steps toward historical accountability, human dignity, and genuine democratic reconciliation. This is not just a matter of acknowledging the past; it is a matter of justice. It is about ensuring that the voices of those who suffered are heard and remembered, and that future generations learn from these tragedies. Despite the shortcomings that Montenegrins continue to criticize in their homeland, the personal freedoms achieved today are significant. With them, Montenegrins have the opportunity to confront their difficult past, demand justice, and uphold historical responsibility. 

First, rehabilitation and compensation are important toward restoring dignity. Most former prisoners and their families lived under the stigma of imprisonment. Official recognition and rehabilitation would confirm their innocence and restore their dignity. Second, rehabilitation and compensation are important to impose legal and moral responsibility on the government of Montenegro. Governments that inherited the legal and political structures of Yugoslavia, including Montenegro, have an obligation to acknowledge and atone for the unjust arrests of their citizens. Legal rehabilitation should include overturning unjust sentences, issuing official apologies, and recognizing historical truth in state documents. Third, rehabilitation and compensation acknowledge and compensate for unjust suffering. The survivors (the few who remain) and their families lost years of their lives, livelihoods, and health. Compensation—whether through financial reparations, social benefits, or symbolic acts such as memorial funds—would provide tangible recognition of the injustice they suffered. Finally, rehabilitation and compensations establish historical responsibility. In fact, proper acknowledgment of the victims of Goli Otok would serve as a warning against future political repression. By officially addressing these crimes, societies such as Montenegro can strengthen democratic principles and prevent history from repeating.

It is essential that the government of Montenegro address its difficult past related to Goli Otok by formally acknowledging what happened and by providing rehabilitation and compensation to thevictims/families of Goli Otok prisoners. It is through such formal actions that Montenegro could provide redress for the past while educating future generations about the dangers of punishing political dissent, ensuring that history does not repeat itself. Doing so, Montenegro will fully join the rest of Europe in honoring millions of victims who suffered under totalitarian and authoritarian regimes.

In Pursuit of a Ceasefire in Ukraine: Lessons from Bosnia and Kosovo

In Pursuit of a Ceasefire in Ukraine: Lessons from Bosnia and Kosovo

By: Frederick Lorenz

Fast-moving international developments in February 2025 may soon create a real opportunity for ceasefire negotiations in the ongoing Ukraine war. After years of brutal conflict and significant changes in geopolitical trends, Ukraine and Russia are at a point where they may have no other choice but to agree that the war cannot go on. However, reaching an agreement will be only the first step. The real challenge lies in implementing a ceasefire that is both durable and enforceable. Key issues will include the separation of forces and defining the precise geographical boundaries of demilitarized zones, and establishing an effective international monitoring framework.

Historical examples of international peacekeeping efforts offer valuable insights for shaping such an agreement. The NATO-led missions in Bosnia and Kosovo in the aftermath of the Balkan conflicts provide instructive models, particularly in the crucial first ninety days of ceasefire enforcement. In both cases, military stabilization was assigned to a NATO force while a separate but connected civil administration worked to maintain governance and reconstruction. 

By examining these past missions, policymakers can draw important lessons on force deployment, security arrangements, and international oversight mechanisms that could help stabilize Ukraine in the early stages of a ceasefire. While no single model is directly applicable to the complex and evolving situation in Ukraine, adapting elements from previous peacekeeping efforts could provide a viable framework for ensuring a cessation of hostilities and laying the groundwork for a more lasting resolution.

Establishing a Cease Fire Boundary Line and Zone of Separation in Ukraine

The situation in Ukraine is complex and unprecedented. Negotiations over the potential ceasefire line will be a formidable task as they may have a long-term impact on Ukraine’s outlook. In the short term, establishing effective mechanisms for separating opposing forces within a demilitarized zone can help prevent clashes and build stability

The boundary readjustment and transition process followed in Bosnia could provide some lessons for Ukraine. Following the negotiation of the Dayton Accords in 1995, the General Framework for Peace (the General Framework) was signed later that same year, which established an Inter-Entity Boundary Line (Boundary Line) in Bosnia separating the conflicting parties and preventing further clashes. While the General Framework established a provisional Boundary Line, the parties themselves committed to establishing a joint commission with an equal number of representatives from both sides to develop a precise description of the Boundary Line. Disputed portions of the Boundary Line were further decided by arbitration.

Further, the General Framework declared a zone of separation spanning 2 kilometers on both sides of the Boundary Line making a zone 4 kilometers in total. The Boundary Line was established mostly along the military frontlines as they were at the time of the Dayton negotiations, with some major adjustments, most notably in the western part of the country, and in-and-around Sarajevo. The full separation of forces with a 4-kilometer distance between each other was fully completed ninety days after NATO forces operating as part of the Implementation Force (IFOR) tasked with implementing the Dayton Accords had taken over the authority from the UN forces previously responsible for enforcing peace in Bosnia. 

In addition to a boundary readjustment, military forces and civilians in Bosnia were relocated according to the schedule contained in the General Framework. In fact, despite efforts to persuade them to stay, most Serbs (about 30,000) hastily moved to the Serb zone designated in the General Framework.

Following the example in Bosnia, a similar boundary line commission could be established in Ukraine to minimize subsequent clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces caused by disputes over the precise definitions of the delineation line. 

International Monitoring in Ukraine

The ceasefire and the established delineation line will also require a robust monitoring mechanism. While Bosnia’s IFOR and Kosovo’s KFOR forces had extensive mandates that included enforcement by NATO forces which are unlikely to happen in Ukraine’s case, certain aspects applicable to Ukraine can still be extracted. 

For instance, the Bosnia context has shown that a centralized military control structure will be essential for Ukraine. Specifically, coordination in Bosnia was handicapped because the General Framework did not designate a single authority to synchronize the military, political, and humanitarian aspects of the NATO mission. 

Additionally, a detailed report of the command and control arrangements in Bosnia found that the role of judge advocate officers was crucial and an important source of advice to commanders as they “played a key role in establishing [rules of engagement] for each force.” For instance, judge advocate officers would brief the IFOR Commander on rules of engagement and the Military Annex of the General Framework, including military activities such as defensive bunkers that would be permitted or prohibited in the zone of separation. 

Moreover, new technologies are rapidly emerging that can help manage or enforce peace and inhibit the deterioration of crises into war. Data collected through sensor and surveillance systems can help increase the confidence of the parties to an agreement and provide operational intelligence for preventing violence. Autonomous unarmed drones could play a role in monitoring lines of contact and ceasefire violations to reduce the risk to peacekeepers on the ground.

Since technology collects a tremendous amount of information, Artificial Intelligence (AI) could help monitoring missions review the images of potential violations and the interface with satellite imagery. AI can provide advantages but also risks from intentional disinformation from parties to the conflict. But even with useful information, there needs to be effective mechanisms for command, control, and enforcement of provisions in the ceasefire agreement.

In this regard and given President Trump's calls for European commitment, Europe will likely have to bear the main burden of providing security and ensuring compliance with a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. Nonetheless, as highlighted in a recent paper by the German Institution for Security Affairs (SWP): “A mission entirely without U.S. support is inconceivable because of the mix of capabilities required for such an endeavor.” 

As regards the size of the possible European force in Ukraine, President Zelenskyy has stated that 200,000 peacekeepers would be needed. For comparison, the KFOR mission in Kosovo began in 1999 with 48,000 soldiers, which covers almost 11,000 square km. Ukraine is almost 55 times larger. Realistically, without the US, even the 200,000 peacekeeper number is unlikely to be feasible. Nevertheless, with the proper technological support, a much smaller force might be able to effectively cover a Ukraine demilitarized zone.

Eli Tenenbaum, director of the Security Studies Center at the French Institute of International Relations, offers details on how such a smaller force could look like. He proposes deploying “three to five brigades with a total of about 40,000 troops with robust air defense capabilities, positioning these forces 20-50 kilometers from the frontline, east of the Dnipro River.” 

Additionally, it will take some time to identify, assemble, and properly deploy to the region. In Bosnia, a large part of IFOR was already in the country as part of the UNPROFOR, and in Kosovo, the NATO forces were in the region and could deploy along previously established ground routes. In Ukraine, the differences are vast, both in terms of the size of the armed conflict zone and the distances to move and properly deploy. Although the US will likely not have “boots on the ground,” it may very well be able to supply intelligence, logistic support, and strategic airlift for the multinational force.

Negotiating a ceasefire

Undeniably, before thinking about implementing a ceasefire in Ukraine, the parties will need to agree to this ceasefire. 

The Public International Law and Policy Group (PILPG) provides valuable resources to support negotiations, including a Ceasefire Drafters Handbook. Several core elements are listed from a comparative analysis of ceasefires: (1) a cessation of hostilities, (2) the separation of forces, and (3) the verification, supervision, and monitoring of the agreement.

Past agreements and efforts to establish peace between Ukraine and Russia further provide important insights and words of warning for current attempts to develop an effective ceasefire or peace agreement. Another PILPG document outlines the substance and several key failings of recent past agreements, including the

Budapest Memorandum, Minsk I and II. This information should be crucial for those attempting to negotiate a durable cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.

For Ukraine, the initial process could start and conclude rather quickly, and the written agreement could be only a few pages long. The Gaza agreement was only 1,400 words. The agreement consists of three related and interconnected stages, each with a forty-three-day schedule, and a description of the conditions (including the release of detainees) to be met by each side.

The initial ceasefire arrangement in Ukraine might similarly consist of three stages of about 45 days each. Phase 1 could commence after an agreement for cessation of hostilities, and during that time, the preliminary boundary lines would be established, and remote monitoring would begin. Phase 2 could provide a deadline for the withdrawal of the military forces of Russia and Ukraine from the newly established zone of separation. Phase 3 could provide for the deployment of the multinational force and the commencement of monitoring and other activities described in the ceasefire agreement. 

For a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, the first or second phase will likely require a withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Russia in the Kursk Region, with a corresponding Russian yielding of claims to certain areas that it has previously “annexed” but does not physically control. This may have to wait until a more permanent peace agreement is signed. A boundary commission, like the one used in Bosnia, may be essential in the short term. The difficult part of the ceasefire negotiation will be the establishment of an organizational framework that includes military, civilian, and humanitarian tasks, as well as a reconstruction plan. While not discussed in this blog, long-term security guarantees will be another highly challenging negotiation conundrum. 

Conclusion

A ceasefire agreement in Ukraine will require careful negotiation and the development of an innovative political-military framework for peace. The structure of the framework and its implementation will likely be the responsibility of the major European powers. Although there is no single model that is directly applicable, negotiators can draw on successful aspects of previous models, including NATO IFOR, and UNMIK KFOR, among others. Designation of boundaries, separation of forces, verification, and monitoring of zones will be critical in the short term. New technologies may provide options that were not

available in previous conflict areas. Ukraine is unique and challenging with multiple factors that might prevent permanent peace. However, a well-drafted ceasefire agreement can play a critical role in establishing a durable cessation of war.

Europe Must Act Now to Secure Ukraine’s (And Its) Future

Europe Must Act Now to Secure Ukraine’s (And Its) Future

By: Julian Braithwaite, Professor Michael Kelly, Katie Hetherington

As the United States bypasses both Ukraine and Europe to negotiate directly with Russia on an end to its war of aggression in Ukraine, Europe faces a stark reality: a settlement could be imposed that weakens Ukraine and undermines European security. While U.S. policy is still in flux, Europe cannot afford to be a passive observer. Instead, it must adopt a similarly transactional approach, creating irreversible commitments to Ukraine’s future that make it harder for Washington and Moscow to strike a deal that leaves Kyiv vulnerable. To shape the course of negotiations, Europe must establish facts on the ground that bind its security to Ukraine’s survival. 

A European Stabilization Force

First, European governments should agree with Kyiv to deploy European forces as part of a stabilization force. This presence would give Europe a direct stake in Ukraine’s security and ensure that any future agreement considers European interests. European troops should be clustered around Ukraine’s 10 largest cities still under Ukrainian control (from Kyiv to Odesa), thereby preventing Russia from attacking them with drones or rockets for fear of hitting NATO troops stationed there, albeit not under the NATO flag.

Fast-Tracking EU Accession

Second, Ukraine’s integration into the European Union must be fast-tracked, providing Kyiv with tangible economic and security benefits that Russia cannot undo. Although Ukraine has some way to go in further aligning with EU requirements regarding the rule of law and democratic institutions and rooting out corruption, the Zelenskyy government has made tremendous strides – certainly similar to those made by Romania and Bulgaria on their accession. By accelerating Ukraine’s EU accession and implementing concrete measures such as increased market access, investment guarantees, and security cooperation, Europe would signal its unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Leveraging Frozen Assets

Third, Europe must leverage Russia’s frozen assets. This is one thing Europe controls directly. Most of the Russian Central Bank’s $300 billion is located in Europe, the interest of which is being routed to rebuild Ukraine. The release of these assets should be made conditional on a settlement that guarantees Ukraine’s territorial integrity and security. If an unjust peace is imposed, Europe should repurpose these assets to strengthen its own defense, support Ukraine’s long-term resilience, and pay for European stabilization forces located in Ukraine.

A Unified European Defense Posture

Finally, while the withdrawal of U.S. security commitments to Europe is not yet certain, Europe must prepare for a unified European defense posture without U.S. backing. First, European defense industries must scale up long-term arms production for Ukraine. This ensures sustained military support that is independent of U.S. political cycles and strengthens Europe’s strategic autonomy. Germany’s new Chancellor has committed to do so, following similar French and British commitments. Second, Europe’s two nuclear powers—the U.K. and France—can use their nuclear weapons as a deterrent of their own, underpinning European security independent of U.S. security guarantees. Saber-rattling is in no way endorsed, but Moscow should be reminded that Paris and London’s nuclear weapons are not under American control. 

Exerting Pressure on Russia and United States

Beyond bolstering Ukraine, Europe can exert pressure on both Russia and the United States to ensure a fair settlement. What might this look like? On the Russian front, loopholes in energy sanctions must be closed to prevent the backdoor export of oil and gas via third countries such as India—which mixes discounted Russian oil with Saudi oil so that it is no longer Russian and then upsells the derived petroleum products back to the U.S. and others. 

On the U.S. front, Europe must remember that it has leverage as well. If Washington pressures Ukraine into an unfair deal, European nations should shift defense procurement away from American suppliers, reducing reliance on the U.S. defense industry. And much like the U.S., Europe can also use trade policy as a bargaining chip, by linking cooperation on China and digital regulation to American support for Ukraine’s full sovereignty. The deal President Trump struck with President Zelenskyy to secure Ukraine’s valuable minerals vaguely implies American protection for Ukraine, but this will only last during the mining process. Once the minerals are extracted, the Trump-run United States will no longer have any interest in protecting Ukraine, and any protection there was will most certainly be withdrawn.

Decisive European Action

Europe does not need U.S. permission to act. Indeed, if Europe acts now with both vision and conviction, they can influence the endgame for the war in Ukraine. By creating leverage, establishing clear commitments, and taking decisive action, European leaders can ensure that any negotiated settlement—whether led by Washington or not—secures Ukraine’s future and safeguards European security for the long term. The time to act is now.

The Legal Case for Ukraine’s Territorial Reintegration

The Legal Case for Ukraine’s Territorial Reintegration

By: Katie hetherington, sindija beta, and dr. paul r. williams

The overwhelming majority of the international community agrees on the illegality of Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory and Ukraine’s right to territorial integrity. This is evidenced by the consistent diplomatic statements of major international actors and numerous U.N. General Assembly resolutions, including Resolution 68/262 of 2014, adopted in direct response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea; Resolution ES-11/1 of 2022, deploring Russia’s aggression against Ukraine’s territorial integrity and decision to recognise the so-called independence of certain areas of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions; and Resolution ES-11/4 of 2022, reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity and declaring the referendums in and subsequent Russian annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia as illegal under international law. 

Ukraine’s claim includes the restoration of its borders as they stood immediately after the USSR’s dissolution, encompassing all territories currently occupied by Russia: Crimea, and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia continues to assert that its annexation and occupation of these territories is legitimate. International law provides a definitive response: Russia’s claims are illegitimate, and Ukraine’s sovereignty over its occupied territories remains unassailable. 

This blog outlines the legal foundation supporting Ukraine’s right to reintegrate these territories, structured around five key components: the principles of territorial integrity, use of force, and self-defense; uti possidetis juris; international agreements between Russia and Ukraine; self determination and remedial secession; and the principles of waiver, acquiescence, and extinctive prescription. Ultimately, this blog demonstrates that Ukraine’s right to territorial integrity and the restoration of its 1991 borders is supported by international law.

The Legal Basis for Ukraine’s Right to Territorial Integrity and Reintegration

Territorial Integrity, Use of Force, and Self-Defense

Russia consistently refutes the illegality of its invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory. However, the international legal order within which Russia professes to operate clearly provides a basis for Ukraine’s claim to territorial integrity and territorial reintegration. 

The prohibition of the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state is enshrined in Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter. This principle has been upheld in numerous cases, including the ICJ's decisions in Corfu Channel and Nicaragua, and has been consistently supported by both the U.N. Security Council and the General Assembly. General Assembly resolution 2625 reaffirmed the international community’s commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force and restated the principle that no territorial acquisition resulting from the threat or use of force shall be recognized as legal. Further, General Assembly resolution 3314 on the definition of aggression reiterated that territorial acquisition through aggression shall not be recognized as lawful by the international community. 

The Helsinki Final Act of 1975, signed at the conclusion of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (“CSCE”), also affirms these fundamental legal principles and evidences Russia’s obligation to respect these legal norms. The Final Act, signed by the Soviet Union, codified respect for the territorial integrity of states as a cornerstone of European security and the commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force against the sovereignty of all signatory states. After the end of the Cold War and the emergence of new challenges in shifting European geopolitics, CSCE was institutionalized and evolved into what is currently known as the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (“OSCE”), to which both Russia and Ukraine are parties. This membership commits both states to the principles outlined in the Helsinki Final Act. 

In response to accusations that Russia has violated its obligation to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Russian authorities frequently assert that their use of force constitutes an act of self-defense intended to protect ethnically Russian communities in Ukraine. Much like the principle of territorial integrity, the right to self-defense is a well-established norm under international law, enshrined in Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. When invoked, it may justify a state’s use of armed force in response to an armed attack by another state. The exercise of self-defense may also be justified outside of an armed attack where self-defense is anticipatory, preemptive, or preventative. Yet Russia was not attacked by Ukraine, nor did it face any threat of force by Ukraine, in advance of its 2014 occupation of Crimea or its full-scale invasion in 2022. Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory thus cannot be validated as an act of self-defense, and directly violates its commitments to the fundamental principles of territorial integrity and prohibition of the use of force.

Uti Possidetis Juris and the Validity of the 1991 Borders

Russia has repeatedly challenged the legitimacy of Ukraine's claim to territorial integrity in accordance with its borders as they stood at the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.  However, the legal basis for Ukraine’s claim to its 1991 borders can be found within the principle of uti possidetis juris.

This principle establishes that newly independent states inherit the administrative boundaries that existed at the time of independence, unless otherwise provided by agreement. The principle was initially applied in decolonization contexts to ascertain the boundaries of post-colonial states, such as in the ICJ’s 1986 judgment in Burkina Faso vs. Mali in which the Court relied on colonial boundaries at the time of independence to delineate the disputed border. 

However, the principle can now be said to serve as the rule for adjudicating border disputes for newly independent states. The Badinter Arbitration Committee, set up by the European Economic Community to provide arbitration and legal advice to the Conference on Yugoslavia during the break up of the former Yugoslavia, reaffirmed the principle of uti possidetis and clarified the scope of its application outside of post-colonial contexts. In its opinion in response to the question of whether the internal boundaries between Croatia and Serbia, and between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, should be regarded as frontiers in terms of public international law, the Commission determined that “except where otherwise agreed, former republican borders become international frontiers protected by international law.” This determination was based on two fundamental principles: territorial integrity and the principle of uti possidetis, and demonstrated the applicability of the latter principle in any context of state dissolution or boundary dispute. 

Ukraine’s administrative borders within the Soviet Union included the territory of Crimea and other currently occupied territories. Further, Ukraine’s claim to these borders, in line with the principle of uti possidetis, is not without recognition from Russia. On December 8, 1991, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed the Belovezha Accords, which declared that the Soviet Union dissolved and formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (the “Commonwealth”). Soon after, on December 21, 1991, the Belovezha parties and eight other post-Soviet states signed the Alma-Ata Protocols, formally establishing the Commonwealth and committing the parties to respect one another's territorial integrity and “the inviolability of existing borders within the Commonwealth.”

While the Alma-Ata Protocols did not explicitly define the specific borders of each member state, the recognition of specific borders among the Commonwealth member states—and importantly from Russia—was institutionalized later, notably with the adoption of the Commonwealth Charter on January 22, 1993. In the Charter Russia, acting consistently with the principle of uti possidetis, recognized Ukraine’s existing frontiers in line with the administrative boundaries of states within the Soviet Union prior to its dissolution.

International Agreements and Repeated Recognition

Subsequent international agreements provide additional support for Ukraine’s territorial claims. International agreements demonstrate Russia's consistent formal recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its 1991 borders, inclusive of Crimea and other occupied territories—although Russia has frequently disputed the delineation and demarcation of Ukraine’s borders and rescinded on its treaty obligations.

In 1994, Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances of Ukraine (the “Budapest Memorandum”). While not a legally binding treaty, the Budapest Memorandum contained important commitments to territorial integrity. In exchange for Ukraine’s relinquishing of its nuclear arsenal as it acceded to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the parties to the Budapest Memorandum explicitly pledged to respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial boundaries in line with its “existing borders”. As a signatory to the agreement, Russia committed to refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine. 

Three years later, in 1997, Ukraine and Russia signed the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between Ukraine and Russia (“Treaty on Friendship”). The Treaty on Friendship was a legally binding agreement subject to automatic renewal unless one party decided to terminate the agreement (it is worth noting that the treaty remained in effect until 2019 when, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and escalating conflict, then-Ukrainian President Poroshenko signed a decree opting not to extend the treaty, resulting in its expiry in March 2019). Under Article 2 of the treaty, both parties committed to “respect each other’s territorial integrity and confirm the inviolability of their common borders.” Furthermore, under Article 3 Russia agreed to “base relations with [Ukraine] on the principles of mutual respect, sovereign equality, territorial integrity, the inviolability of borders, the peaceful settlement of disputes, [and] the non-use of force or threat of force.” 

International agreements between Ukraine and Russia provide a clear and consistent record of Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its 1991 borders, and its annexation and occupation of Ukrainian territory demonstrably violate its commitments under several international treaties to which it is a signatory. 

Self-Determination and Remedial Secession

Despite Russia’s obligation to honor territorial integrity under multiple international agreements, Russia argues that Ukraine does not have any right to sovereignty over the territories it has occupied, and their right to self-determination must be recognized. It bases its claim on the purported results of the referenda held in Crimea in 2014 and Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson in 2022, as well as principles of self-determination and remedial secession. Nonetheless, as demonstrated below, Russia manipulates these legal principles to attempt to justify its illegal acts. 

The 2014 and 2022 Referenda

Russia asserts that the referenda of 2014 and 2022 were legitimate exercises of self-determination and remedial secession, but both referenda fail to meet the criteria for either principle and the application of these principles to Russia’s actions is legally invalid.

First, Russia’s application of self-determination and remedial secession is fundamentally flawed. The principle of self-determination is a key component of international law, granting peoples the right to determine their own political status and governance. However, the principle in the first instance is focused on the right to internal self-determination—the right of a people or group within a state to pursue their political, economic, social, and cultural development without seeking secession. This is opposed to external self-determination—the right of a people or group to freely determine their political status, including the possibility of secession. In fact, the existence of a contemporary right to external self-determination is widely disputed in the international discourse. 

Nevertheless, per the support of some commentators to the right to external self-determination, international law also establishes clear limits on when self-determination can justify altering the territorial boundaries of an existing state. These limits are essential for understanding Ukraine’s territorial claims and its legal right to reintegrate its occupied territories. In order for self-determination to justify secession, it must address extreme conditions such as systemic oppression or a denial of fundamental rights by the parent state. This is known as remedial secession, a legal concept that has not yet gained universal acceptance and allows secession only when a state is responsible for grave violations of the rights of a specific population. 

In the case of the 2014 and 2022 referenda, even if remedial secession was regarded as an established legal rule, there is no evidence that the populations of Crimea nor other occupied territories faced any such conditions before Russia’s intervention. The absence of these conditions negates Russia’s claim that the secession of these territories from Ukraine would be legally justified under the principle of remedial secession.

 A second factor is the context in which these referenda occurred. International law requires that any referendum on self-determination be conducted under free and fair conditions, free from external coercion or military occupation. The Venice Commission, an advisory body of the Council of Europe, found the 2014 Crimean referendum to be unconstitutional under Ukrainian and Crimean law and conducted under conditions that violated international norms. Similarly, reports from the 2022 referenda found widespread evidence of coercion, military intimidation, and duress. In both instances, the referenda failed to meet this basic criteria, violating basic legal standards for free and fair elections. 

The illegitimacy of these referenda has been affirmed by the international community. U.N. General Assembly Resolution 68/262 reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders (including Crimea) and declared the Crimean referendum invalid. The referenda in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson were similarly condemned by the U.N. General Assembly in Resolution ES-11/4 as illegal attempts by Russia to modify Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders with no validity under international law.  The international community overwhelmingly affirms that Ukraine’s claim to territorial integrity is unaltered by the sham referenda of 2014 and 2022, and rejects Russia’s attempts to legitimize its annexations.

Claims of Waiver, Acquiescence, and Extinctive Prescription

In light of Russia's prolonged occupation, international legal principles like waiver, acquiescence, and extinctive prescription arise: can Ukraine’s sovereignty be lost simply due to inaction or the passage of time? International law again definitively confirms that this is not the case, especially when the occupation is unlawful.

The concept of waiver in international law requires an explicit and intentional renunciation of rights over territory. Ukraine has made no such renunciation. On the contrary, Ukraine has consistently and unequivocally objected to Russia’s occupation, affirming its sovereign claim over all occupied territories. Similarly, the principle of acquiescence—implying a state’s tacit consent to a violation—cannot apply when a state persistently contests the unlawful actions of another, as Ukraine has done.

The doctrine of extinctive prescription, which suggests that prolonged failure to assert territorial rights might lead to their loss, is also inapplicable here. Under international law, prescription cannot legitimize territorial claims arising from aggression, coercion, or unlawful occupation. Russia's actions—constituting aggression and unlawful occupation—cannot create a valid legal title to Ukrainian territory, regardless of how long the occupation endures.

Ukraine's ongoing rejection of Russia’s claims, alongside the consistent reaffirmation of its 1991 borders by both Ukraine and the international community, reinforces its sovereign rights. These actions preclude any legal arguments based on waiver, acquiescence, or extinctive prescription, further bolstering Ukraine’s right to reintegrate its occupied territories and restore its internationally recognized borders.

Conclusion

The legal case for Ukraine’s claim to territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders and the reintegration of its occupied territory is both robust and unassailable. International law affirms that Russia’s occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territories are without legal validity. From the prohibition of territorial acquisition through force to the principles of self-determination and the reaffirmation of Ukraine's borders in international agreements, Ukraine’s sovereignty remains firmly intact. The doctrine of territorial integrity, which upholds the inviolability of state borders, has been consistently reinforced by the international community, leaving no room for Russia’s claims to legitimacy. Ukraine’s steadfast rejection of Russia’s unlawful actions, coupled with its ongoing assertion of its 1991 borders, precludes any legal arguments for waiver, acquiescence, or prescription. Ukraine is fully entitled to reintegrate its occupied territories and restore its internationally recognized borders.

As the international community continues to stand firm in rejecting Russia’s illegal actions, the case for Ukraine’s territorial reintegration grows stronger. Supporting Ukraine’s right to reintegrate its occupied territories is not only a defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty but also a broader affirmation of the principles that protect all states from unlawful territorial aggression. 



Seeking a Path to Durable Peace: How a Multinational Force for the Donbas Region Could Forge Stability in Ukraine

Seeking a Path to Durable Peace: How a Multinational Force for the Donbas Region Could Forge Stability in Ukraine

By: Professor David M. Crane

The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine poses significant challenges to stability in Europe and beyond. With the full-scale war entering its fourth year, finding a path to durable peace has proven nearly impossible. Government officials and foreign policy experts have laid out numerous ideas and proposals for peace, including the option of establishing a demilitarized zone, stationing European peacekeepers in Ukraine, or freezing the war on current battlefield lines. Despite the numerous ideas put forward, none have emerged as a clear solution.

This blog post explores a ceasefire model based on the successful Multinational Force and Observers (“MFO”) established for the Sinai Peninsula, examining how such a framework could be adapted for the Donbas region of Ukraine. The MFO, agreed upon in the 1981 Protocol to the Treaty of Peace between Egypt and Israel, functioned as a peacekeeping force to observe and verify compliance with the provisions of the peace treaty. By drawing inspiration from this model, a Multinational Force and Observers for the Donbas Region (“MFO-DR”) could offer a potential avenue for fostering security, dialogue, and cooperation among the affected parties in Ukraine.

While not proposing it as a definitive solution to the conflict, the MFO-DR model represents a framework through which neutral international forces could help ensure compliance with any ceasefire and facilitate further dialogue. The MFO-DR model is intended to only apply to the Donbas region as Crimea would likely require an alternative arrangement. Likewise, this model is not intended to replace security guarantees for Ukraine as a whole. This approach aims to contribute to the broader conversation on peacekeeping strategies without positioning itself as the sole path to resolution.

The Concept of the Multinational Force and Observers for the Donbas Region (MFO-DR)

The MFO-DR would divide the conflict zone into three distinct zones, each serving a specific purpose in maintaining peace and ensuring compliance with any ceasefire agreement. This division would allow for better monitoring, reduce the chances of escalation, and enable trust-building measures between Ukraine and Russia.

Zone A would cover an area directly adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border, where Russia would maintain control and stability. Military presence in this zone would be limited, with only non-offensive personnel, such as border police, allowed. Surveillance equipment could be employed to monitor activities in the region.

Zone B, the largest and most critical area, would be managed by the neutral Multinational Force. Composed of selected countries willing to contribute to peacekeeping efforts, the Multinational Force would serve as a buffer between the warring parties. This area would be where most of the monitoring, inspections, and negotiations would take place. The force would be equipped with basic defensive tools for self-protection but would refrain from deploying any offensive weapons.

Lastly, Zone C would be the Ukrainian-controlled area, where Ukrainian governance and security forces would operate. This zone would also prohibit heavy military equipment and offensive weapons, with the presence of Ukrainian border police limited to non-aggressive personnel. Surveillance would be used here as well to ensure compliance and prevent any violations of the ceasefire.

The command structure of the MFO-DR would be headed by a neutral general officer, someone with vast experience in international peacekeeping and diplomacy. The Director General, an equally impartial individual, would oversee the strategic and diplomatic aspects of the mission, working to maintain relationships between all stakeholders and keep the peace process moving forward.

The Importance of Neutrality in the MFO-DR

One of the key aspects of the MFO-DR would have to be its neutrality. Drawing from the success of the MFO in the Sinai, which had troops from various states with no affiliation to either party in the conflict, the MFO-DR would similarly need to maintain strict impartiality. This would allow the multinational force to be seen as a legitimate and trusted entity by both Ukraine and Russia, increasing the likelihood of cooperation.

States involved in the MFO-DR would not be part of NATO, ensuring that the initiative is not perceived as an extension of Western influence. The inclusion of states from diverse regions of the world, such as China, India, Kenya, Jordan, Brazil, Argentina, and Australia, could help mitigate concerns from all parties about bias or interference in the war. These states have historically held neutral stances in international conflicts, and their involvement could signal an effort to balance international interests while respecting the sovereignty of both Russia and Ukraine.

By remaining neutral and independent, the MFO-DR could play a vital role in easing tensions and encouraging dialogue between the two sides. The participation of neutral nations from a variety of geopolitical backgrounds would enhance the legitimacy of the peace process, giving it a broader, more inclusive global appeal. This diversity also brings a wealth of experience in conflict resolution and peacekeeping, making the MFO-DR a potentially effective instrument for long-term stability.

Operational Guidelines and Confidence-Building Measures

For the MFO-DR to function effectively, several operational guidelines would be required. Observers and peacekeepers within the force would need unrestricted access to all zones, allowing them to conduct regular inspections and engage with local populations to assess the situation on the ground. In addition, there would need to be a robust reporting mechanism to quickly address any incidents or breaches of peace, ensuring that any violations of ceasefire agreements are communicated and dealt with swiftly.

Perhaps one of the most crucial elements of the MFO-DR would have to be its role in building trust. Regular consultations between Russian, Ukrainian, and Multinational Force representatives could help maintain open lines of communication and address concerns as they arise. Additionally, cross-border cultural and economic initiatives could be implemented to foster collaboration among communities divided by the conflict.

Training programs for military and security forces from participating nations could further reinforce cooperative security principles and build trust. These programs could focus on cooperation, non-escalation tactics, and human rights, reinforcing a commitment to peaceful resolution rather than military confrontation.

Geopolitical and Diplomatic Considerations for the MFO-DR

As for any peace proposal for the Russian war in Ukraine, the evolving geopolitical landscape could present both challenges and opportunities for the MFO-DR. While NATO and the European Union would not formally participate, their influence as established power structures in Eastern Europe remains significant. For this model to work, Russia, Ukraine, and the international community, including NATO and the EU, would have to agree on the framework and support its implementation.

Furthermore, the MFO-DR may find itself navigating the complex tension between national sovereignty and collective international action. The MFO-DR, by involving nations outside traditional Western alliances, may reflect a new paradigm of cooperation. Nations like India and Brazil, with their histories of non-alignment, could facilitate dialogue between Russia and Ukraine and open doors for constructive engagement in negotiations.

The United Nations could serve as a critical facilitator for bringing together the core nations in establishing the MFO-DR. Leveraging its expertise in peacekeeping and conflict resolution, the UN could provide technical assistance and guidance to the MFO-DR, ensuring adherence to international norms and practices.

A potential General Assembly resolution supporting the MFO-DR could provide the initiative with the necessary legitimacy, especially if the UN Security Council remains paralyzed by political divisions. This would parallel the MFO in the Sinai Peninsula, which operated without direct UN involvement but received public support from the international community, including the UN.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Multinational Force and Observers for the Donbas Region could be another model to consider for peace in Ukraine. By involving nations from outside traditional Western alliances, the MFO-DR can provide a balanced, multi-polar approach to peacekeeping that avoids the pitfalls of geopolitical bias. The establishment of this framework would aim to reduce hostilities, encourage dialogue, and ultimately create a path towards long-term peace and stability in Ukraine.