Intricacies and Challenges in Building a Lasting Peace for Ukraine
The purpose of this article is to examine the complex landscape of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, tracing the trajectory of diplomatic efforts from Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea through the renewed talks of 2025. Drawing on the history of failed frameworks, including the Minsk Protocols and the Istanbul Communiqué, this article identifies recurring patterns in Russia's negotiating behavior, among them bad faith engagement, resistance to enforceable commitments, exploitation of procedural legitimacy, and the leveraging of structural asymmetries to extract disproportionate concessions from Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the article proposes five essential elements for designing a durable and just peace process: Ukrainian leadership throughout negotiations; meaningful inclusion of civil society and women; a monitored and enforced ceasefire; robust security guarantees that go beyond the hollow assurances of the Budapest Memorandum; and clearly defined, legally binding obligations for all parties. The article concludes that lasting peace will require not only a well-structured negotiating framework, but sustained international engagement and a recognition that any agreement reached without these foundational components risks repeating the failures of the past.
Dr. Yuna Potomkina is a Partner at Asters, where she leads Alternative Dispute Resolution and co leads Public Advocacy and Law. She holds a PhD from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences and is a 2024 Weinstein JAMS International Fellow. She has advised senior Ukrainian government officials, including within the Minsk negotiation process, and contributed to drafting national mediation legislation and Ukraine’s signing of the Singapore Convention on Mediation. She serves as a board member of the Ukrainian Bar Association’s Mediation Committee, and her work focuses on mediation, negotiation, and alternative dispute resolution.
Dr. Paul R. Williams holds the Rebecca I. Grazier Professorship in Law and International Relations at American University where he teaches in the School of International Service and at the Washington College of Law. Dr. Williams is also the Co Founder of the Public International Law and Policy Group. He received his JD from Stanford Law School and his PhD from the University of Cambridge.
Paula C. Kates is an associate in the Litigation group at White and Case in New York, focusing on commercial disputes and bankruptcy litigation. She received her JD from New York University School of Law and served as a judicial law clerk in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York.