PILPG Policy Planning, in collaboration with our Ukrainian friends and colleagues and legal and subject-matter experts, have developed a range of materials to assist Ukraine in preparing for ceasefire negotiations. These resources, including memoranda, red team documents, case studies, and expert interviews, offer crucial insights for Ukraine to consider when planning for and entering negotiations for a ceasefire. These key considerations include guidance on the nature and scope of a ceasefire agreement, analysis of the former efforts between Ukraine and Russia, as well as insights into Russian tactics, priorities, and perspectives entering ceasefire negotiations that Ukraine must be prepared to address.
The following webpage contains a range of guiding resources for Ukraine on planning for and entering ceasefire talks with Russian including:
Red Team Initiative Memoranda Case Studies Expert Interviews Ceasefire handbook
PILPG brought together the best military, policy, and legal minds to assist Ukraine in planning for future ceasefire negotiations with Russia. The PILPG Ceasefire Policy Planning Working Group, in collaboration with our friends and colleagues in Ukraine, engaged retired Generals, policymakers, and subject matter experts, to develop a range of materials on planning for a ceasefire process in Ukraine, culminating in a range of corollary work product. This expert working group is one in a series of Ukraine policy planning working groups within the PILPG Policy Planning Initiative. These working groups focus on providing practical guidance on specific conflict and post-conflict policy questions Ukraine is likely to face in the future.
PILPG is honored to have the involvement of the following experts in the Policy Planning Ceasefire Working Group for Ukraine: Brigadier General Robert S. Cooley, Jr., US Army (Ret.) (PILPG Senior Peace Fellow); Major General Darrell Guthrie, US Army (Ret.) (PILPG Senior Peace Fellow); Colonel Rick Lorenz, USMC (Ret.) (PILPG Senior Peace Fellow); Drew Mann, Former U.S. Senior Foreign Service Officer (PILPG Strategic Legal Adviser); and Major General Hugh Van Roosen, US Army (Ret.), UN Project Leader.
PILPG’s Ceasefire Red Team produced a summary guide that includes both Russia’s likely priorities in negotiating a ceasefire with Ukraine as well as the expected Russian approach toward future ceasefire negotiations. This in-depth analysis provides guidance on anticipating Russia's negotiating strategies and better preparing Ukraine for successful negotiations.
The Ceasefire Policy Planning Working Group launched a Red Team Initiative with a sub-group of experts from the larger working group to focus on mapping out Russia’s interests in negotiating a ceasefire through the lens of a Russian “Red Team.” The Red Team met intensively over four weeks to analyze Russia's behavior, position, and objectives amidst Russia's war in Ukraine. The Red Team sought to answer several key questions through the eyes of Russia, including: What does Russia want to achieve in a ceasefire that it wasn’t able to achieve on the battlefield? What do Ukrainian negotiators need to be prepared for when facing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks?
PILPG has actively supported over two dozen peace negotiations and ceasefire efforts around the globe and continues these efforts in Ukraine. To aid in this effort, PILPG Policy Planning have produced various legal and policy memoranda that offer an assessment and analysis of past negotiations and agreements between Russia and Ukraine, and lessons learned for any future negotiations.
This document summarizes previous ceasefires and agreements between Ukraine and Russia, and provides analysis on some of the key reasons why these did not achieve lasting peace. The document outlines agreements such as the Budapest Memorandum, the Minsk Accords, and the Morel Plan, as well as mechanisms for implementation such as the “Steinmeier Formula.”
In partnership with Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe and Milbank LLP, PILPG drafted a series of case studies investigating prior ceasefire negotiations including in the Balkans, Syria, Colombia, and Yemen, and the lessons learned from these contexts for future ceasefire negotiations relating to Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as the distinct nature of the Ukrainian context from these past ceasefire efforts.
These case studies provide critical analysis and legal guidance to aid in the negotiations process. By providing this support, PILPG aims to empower Ukrainian beneficiaries to effectively participate in ceasefire talks and reach agreements that will lead to long-term stability in the region.
Coming Soon: This case study analyzes the negotiations and ceasefire agreement (the “Dayton Peace Accords”) reached among the republics of Yugoslavia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia and facilitated by the Contact Group (of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia) led by the United States in December 1995 to end the Balkans War of 1992-95.
This case study examines the ongoing war in Yemen, focusing on two ceasefire agreements that were made during the conflict: the 2018 Stockholm Agreement and the 2022 Truce. Both of these agreements were aimed at promoting stability and reconciliation, but both have failed to bring a lasting peace.
This case study investigates the peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to end a 52-year long armed conflict.
This case study outlines the Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring uprisings and spread into an armed insurrection. It investigates the ceasefire efforts to resolve the conflict that have included local level ceasefire negotiations and international peace processes, such as the Arab League, the United States, the United Nations and Russia.
PILPG held focused conversations with experts who have worked in various conflict and post-conflict contexts throughout their professional careers to gather best practices and lessons learned for Ukraine on future ceasefire negotiations. These experts shared their experiences and insights from working in countries such as Darfur, Guatemala, Bosnia and Kosovo.
Coming soon: This case study is based on an interview held in December 2022 to Major General Hugh Van Roosen, who has extensive experience in the United States Army and in working on ceasefire negotiations and disarmament, demobilization and reintegration processes in countries such as Liberia, the Central African Republic, and Mali. Specifically, he was involved in the South Sudan peace process in 2014 as the Special Military Adviser to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. This case study focuses on Major General Roosen's experiences in the South Sudan peace process, with insights and reflections that can be applied to future ceasefire negotiations and implementation for Ukraine. This interview was conducted by Serge Holodny from Milbank LLP.
This case study is based on an interview held in December 2022 with Mr. Frederick Lorenz, a PILPG Senior Peace Fellow, who had a career in the United States Marine Corps as a judge advocate, retiring as a colonel in 1998. He also practiced environmental and land use law between 1982 and 1991, obtaining an LLM from George Washington University in Land Use Management and Control. He served as a senior legal advisor for the United Nations authorized military intervention in Somalia in 1992 and the United Nations evacuation in 1995. Mr. Lorenz also served as a senior legal advisor for the NATO implementation force in Bosnia in 1996 and a United Nations Legal Affairs officer in Kosovo in 2000. He spent a year as a Fulbright Senior Scholar in St Petersburg, Russia, teaching courses in international law, environmental law, and US foreign policy. He is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington. Drawing on lessons learned from Bosnia and Kosovo, Mr. Lorenz provides insights on the planning and implementation of Ukraine's ceasefire process. This interview was conducted by Edward McCartney from Milbank LLP.
This case study is based on an interview held in November 2022 to the former U.S. Ambassador to Guatemala, Donald J. Planty, who played a crucial role in negotiating and implementing Guatemala's Definitive Ceasefire and Peace Accords, which ended a 36-year internal armed conflict. The Guatemalan ceasefire process was unique in that there was an informal ceasefire in place for at least a year prior to the signing of the Definitive Ceasefire, which added validity to the overall Peace Accord. This interview was conducted by Upasana Niyogi from Milbank LLP.
This case study is based on an interview held in December 2022 with Matthew T. Simpson, a PILPG Senior Legal Advisor and current Member at Mintz who previously worked with PILPG, including on the Darfur peace process, war crimes witness protection programs in Uganda, Iraq’s 2007 constitutional amendments, and issues of state succession leading to the establishment of the Republic of South Sudan. Despite multiple peace agreements being reached and signed, there has been little lasting peaceful resolution to the conflict in Darfur, which has been ongoing since the early 2000s. Simpson worked to improve the negotiation process and aid ceasefire talks in Darfur, which has seen multiple ceasefire negotiations and agreements that have been unsuccessful. Mr. Simpson's involvement in the Darfur peace process draws lessons that can be applied to future ceasefire processes in Ukraine. This interview was conducted by Ari Gilberg from Milbank LLP.
This case study is based on an interview held in December 2022 with Mr. Andrew Mann, a PILPG Senior Legal Adviser and a retired Senior Foreign Service Officer with over 35 years of experience primarily with the U.S. Department of State. Mr. Mann worked in nine countries, including conflict zones in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan (Darfur), and Bosnia. He has also been on detail to the Office of European Affairs, Legal Adviser’s Office at the United States State Department and served as an Expert-on-Mission to the Office of the Prosecutor, International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. In this case study interview, Mr. Mann shares his experiences of implementing a ceasefire in Sudan's Darfur region and highlighted the challenges and takeaways that could be relevant to achieving a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine. This interview was conducted by Maria Bun from Milbank LLP.
This case study is based on an interview held in December 2022 with Brigadier General Robert S. Cooley, Jr., who has extensive experience in the U.S. Army as a Civil Affairs Officer, leading teams responsible for addressing infrastructure development, reconstruction, rule of law, and economic development in various countries. Brig. Gen. Cooley had teams in Eastern European countries, and Africa, where they focused primarily on Eastern Africa, including disarmament, demobilization and reintegration efforts in Somalia. Brig. Gen. Cooley also previously served on assignments in Iraq and Afghanistan. In a discussion on his work in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and Syria, he reflects on his experiences and highlights important reflections and lessons learned that can be applied to the ceasefire process as it relates to Ukraine. This interview was conducted by Jin Jeon from Milbank LLP.
The Public International Law & Policy Group’s (PILPG) Ceasefire Drafter’s Handbook is a guide intended to effectively assist negotiators and drafters of ceasefire agreements in conflict situations. This Handbook draws from PILPG’s experience in ceasefire negotiations, as well as common state practice and a comparative analysis of over 200 ceasefire agreements from Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America.
This Handbook includes an Introduction to Ceasefires and an Annotated Ceasefire Template. It provides information on ceasefire core elements, the effects of asymmetry on ceasefire agreements, the role of third parties, and the legality of ceasefire agreements. The Annotated Ceasefire Template describes core provisions and provides sample language options for drafters to incorporate into their ceasefire agreements.
PILPG is grateful to have collaborated with our excellent law firm partners, including Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe; Milbank LLP, and others, on this work product.
Click here to learn more about PILPG’s Policy Planning Initiative and co-chairs Dr. Paul R. Williams and Alexandra Koch.